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2023-03-22 02:50:00 ET Summary Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses. The housing market and the inventory cycle in particular are still material headwinds to growth, while we are still unlikely to have fully fe...
2023-03-22 02:30:00 ET Summary Early signs of economic unravelling are starting to appear. The Federal corporation that insures bank deposits is woefully underfunded. The Federal Reserve is under pressure to pivot away from its inflation control efforts. Warren Buffe...
2023-03-21 23:49:00 ET Summary Consumer price index release spurred significant interest rate volatility, both during the subsequent trading day after its release as well as over the following week. Higher rates provide for a more volatile interest rate environment. As inflati...
2023-03-21 17:07:28 ET Summary One of the Fed's mandates is financial stability. Another one of its mandates is price stability. The Fed needs to convince markets that it's able to competently execute on both mandates without sacrificing one of the other. In this article, I an...
2023-03-21 15:02:00 ET Summary Six weeks ago, a recession forecasting model developed by a U.S. Federal Reserve analyst predicted the probability of recession in the U.S. would soon rise above 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25% ...
2023-03-21 11:38:00 ET Summary Plunging Treasury yields are calming financial markets, but they also indicate that the Fed doesn’t need to raise rates higher to match market rates. The banking contagion risk has spread to Europe, where all eyes are now on Credit Suisse afte...
2023-03-21 04:20:00 ET Summary Major bank failures are occurring in the US and Europe. Bank failures are common in major recessions, and all fractional reserve banks are at risk. This banking crisis could be worse than the Great Recession. High inflation puts the Fed betwe...
2023-03-21 02:55:00 ET Summary As in prior crisis periods for the banks, like the 2008/2009 financial crisis, some investors used the crisis to structure favorable investment deals. One such investor has been Warren Buffett. Some of the recent sentiment data suggests fear has over...
2023-03-21 02:30:00 ET Summary Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Despite all the turmoil in the banking sector, US stocks managed to post a gain last week but it was entirely due to the rise in technology a...
2023-03-21 00:02:00 ET Summary Recent weeks have seen markets diverge sharply, with some lagging sectors picking up strength. The Nasdaq has been insulated from the crisis that has wreaked havoc on banking stocks. The overall environment has been unrelentingly bearish - this o...