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2023-03-28 03:28:00 ET Summary 14 constituents in the S&P 500 have been impacted by a GICS Classification change which was originally announced in December 2022. Financials saw the largest change, with 8 of these constituents move from Information Technology into Financials. ...
2023-03-27 17:06:00 ET Summary At December 31st, 2022, the S&P 500 was priced to return 3.26%/year over the next ten years. Congress and the President regularly run huge deficits with the tacit support of the Fed. There is a long left tail, but not as long as the Great Dep...
2023-03-27 13:20:00 ET Summary Buyers and sellers both tend to agree that stock markets will be a lot higher in the future, disagreeing only as to when, by how much, and the cause of a large advance. I suggest investors focus on the market, economy, and shifting political conditio...
2023-03-27 11:25:00 ET Summary It makes sense to prepare for the turning point in this cycle - but not by returning to the winners from the last cycle. Growth would slow and unemployment would rise, and while credit defaults would remain low for the time being, a decline in corpor...
2023-03-27 11:20:00 ET Summary Central banks confront the growth-inflation trade-off, with the Federal Reserve seeing recession but no rate cuts. We agree - and prefer inflation-linked bonds. Bank stocks remained under pressure last week. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield slid furt...
2023-03-27 11:00:00 ET Summary We hear about an imminent market crash weekly in articles all over the internet. I do not see a clear setup for this to occur... yet. I still think we can get one more rally before a "crash" may develop. Week after week many of you are ...
2023-03-27 09:20:00 ET Summary While the final Q4 ’22 GDP estimate and the GDP deflator will get a lot of lip service, the big data point this week will be Friday’s PCE deflator data for February ’23. While Jay Powell is saying the Fed funds rate reductions ar...
2023-03-27 08:00:00 ET Summary I don’t think there is a financial reason to withdraw your funds from a small bank, especially if your deposits are below the FDIC limit. The fall in interest rates due to economic growth concerns has seen investors shift back to the assets th...
2023-03-27 06:25:00 ET Summary The S&P 500’s forward four-quarter estimate has been deteriorating slowly since July 1 ’22, but has not dropped off a cliff so to speak. The technology sector is showing relative strength, while forward earnings look flat at best as...
2023-03-27 05:37:21 ET Summary The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point to manage inflation, but faces a conundrum. The Federal Reserve has opened a new short-term loan facility to address a liquidity crunch. The negative market action is being masked by th...