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2023-04-08 01:36:16 ET Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The long leading indicators remain overwhelmingly negative; the short leadin...
2023-04-08 01:05:00 ET Summary The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 236,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) in March. The unemployment rate fell slightly from from 3.6 percent to 3.5 p...
2023-04-08 00:35:00 ET Summary The US labor market is softening, but still remains tight and that should keep the door open for policymakers to raise rates again at the May 3rd policy meeting. The ECB accounts will be of interest considering recent events and the central bank ...
2023-04-07 23:30:00 ET Summary The old investment playbook is out and a new regime that considers high inflation and interest rates is in. Recent events in the banking sector around SVB and Credit Suisse have made clear the importance of staying nimble as investors. Our expect...
2023-04-07 15:46:00 ET Summary I saw that the prime age employment/population ratio hit 80.7 in March. With the exception of a few years during the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s, that’s the highest employment rate in US history. It’s worth noting th...
2023-04-07 13:25:50 ET Summary The March employment report showed job creation slowed, but it still remains above 2018 and 2019 levels. Labor force participation has improved, but remains a problem. Wage growth continues to moderate, but remains elevated. Earlier thi...
2023-04-07 12:03:00 ET Summary The US economy added 236,000 jobs in March with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.5%. With next week's core inflation number likely to come in at 0.4% month-on-month the odds must favour a final 25bp Fed rate hike in May. However, economic chal...
2023-04-07 10:30:00 ET Summary As a result of decades of globalisation and rising wealth inequality, we may well be entering a new regime - one of higher inflation and higher inflation volatility. These regimes shifts do not occur at once, but over time. Indeed, the past five to 1...
2023-04-07 10:05:00 ET Summary The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, a measure of household sentiment about their current and forward-looking financial situation, has held up reasonably well although understandably lower than the stimulus-aided optimism evident in early 2021...
2023-04-07 09:32:27 ET Summary A number too hot will stoke inflation concerns. A number too cold will stoke recession concerns. We need at least 100,000 jobs a month to absorb population growth. This number is just right for a soft landing. Investors are caught b...