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2023-04-13 13:09:08 ET Summary The average of S&P 500 for March-2023 was 3,969 (15% down from Dec-2021 average of 4,675) and is 384 points higher than the corresponding re-calibrated long-term trend value of 3,585. For the S&P 500 to reach, the corresponding long-trend val...
2023-04-13 11:45:00 ET Summary China to the rescue? The inflection in the hyperscaler capex. Commodities (copper) next in line for a potential upturn. Our take on the overly anticipated US recession - datapoints from the field. While the upcoming US recession is capt...
2023-04-13 02:23:00 ET Summary The Consumer Price Index for March was marked by plunging energy prices and surging services prices. Core CPI jumped by 5.6% year over year, hotter than the 5.5% increase in the prior month, and the first year-over-year increase since September. ...
2023-04-13 01:57:00 ET Summary It is widely acknowledged that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a long and variable lag, which means that it takes time for the economy to adjust to rising or falling interest rates. Despite the most recent readings for the PMI and Conferenc...
2023-04-13 01:14:00 ET Summary Back in early-2018, I highlighted a quartet of stocks that had seen a surge in their prices that was far more significant than could be justified by their underlying business trends. That group was McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Boeing, and 3M. As a...
2023-04-13 00:59:00 ET Summary Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? We think that reducing exposure to risk assets while increasing exposure to defensive equities with lower volatility and higher potential dividends may hel...
2023-04-13 00:30:00 ET Summary AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose 0.03 percent in March 2023, following increases of 0.93 percent in January and 0.67 percent in February. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI registered a 5.6 percent increase, meeting expectations. Disi...
2023-04-12 22:30:00 ET Summary Headline inflation is now running at about a 3.5-4% rate, not the 5% rate cited by most news sources today. If Owners' Equivalent Rent continues to moderate, as it almost undoubtedly will, headline inflation will all but vanish in coming months. ...
2023-04-12 18:25:55 ET Summary Disinflation is defined as a reduction in the rate of inflation, not to be confused with deflation (reduction in prices or negative inflation). March's inflation report finally showed notable progress on headline inflation. Two sectors came off o...
2023-04-12 17:36:27 ET Summary Each month adds another nail to the coffin. Year-over-year metrics are still living on the glory days of early 2022. Inflation bears need a better thesis - the argument is already decomposing. The argument about inflation was further cr...