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2023-04-21 03:00:00 ET Summary China has inked deals with countries like Brazil to trade in either the Chinese yuan or the Brazilian real directly, thereby bypassing conversion to the dollar. The amount of sovereign debt denominated in US dollars (liabilities of non-US central ban...
2023-04-21 01:02:51 ET Summary 2 major “out of favor” picks (our specialty). Need Strong Stomach and 12-24 month holding period. Buy when there’s blood in the Streets. Earnings and manager positioning notes. Retail sales, rents, inflation, and more. ...
2023-04-21 01:00:00 ET Summary Jobless claims have continued to weaken with this week’s release, rising by 5K to 245K versus expectations of no change from last week’s upwardly revised 240K print. At current levels, claims sit at the high end of the range since the s...
2023-04-20 20:54:13 ET Summary The Fed says we will have a mild recession. Credit conditions are tightening just when the U.S. consumer needs credit the most in a decade. Recessionary trends are hinting at something bigger than mild. The last time the Fed said the recessio...
2023-04-20 20:05:00 ET Summary 27.2% of respondents reported as bullish this week, up 1.1 percentage points versus the previous week. Bearish sentiment likewise picked up this week rising from 34.5% to 35.1%. Given both bullish and bearish readings rose, each group borrowed fr...
2023-04-20 14:07:00 ET Summary Our entire financial system revolves around credit. This includes the ability to access credit for new loans, and more importantly, the refinancing of existing loans. At the center of any credit contraction are the banks, for it is they who are the p...
2023-04-20 13:34:00 ET Summary The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. A bond aggregate is about a 5-year instrument in my All Duration model. In today’s environment, the aggregated components of a 60...
2023-04-20 13:09:00 ET Summary We see that the 10s/2s has been inverted since roughly July 2022, while the 10s/3mo (historically the more accurate indicator of recessions) inverted in October. The consensus is that 2023 will witness a decline in corporate earnings as economic acti...
2023-04-20 12:30:00 ET Summary Wedgewood Partners is a money manager founded in 1988 with the goal of providing investors with a superior approach to managing investment portfolios. We cover Q1 2023's top contributors and detractors. Over our 30-plus years, in far too many of ...
2023-04-20 11:45:14 ET Summary The April options expiration has pinned the market between 4,150 and 4,200. This has the bulls trapped because advancing beyond 4,200 will be extremely difficult. The odds favor implied volatility rising from here. At the same time, liquidity is ...