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2023-05-03 01:55:00 ET Summary Leading indicators of recession continue to worsen, as do many financial/credit metrics, but the economy stubbornly refuses to decline. Inflation continued to be elevated in March and, importantly, remained well above the Fed’s long-term goal ...
2023-05-02 20:47:03 ET Summary The Leading Economy moved into recession last year. The Cyclical Economy is entering recession now. The Total Economy will not be immune from recession. A look at historical lead and lag times and what happens next. The US economy has b...
2023-05-02 11:19:00 ET Summary Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in March 2023 is $81,340. Adjusted for inflation, the level of median household income in March 2023 represents a $182 increase over February's estimate, with earned income outpacing...
2023-05-02 06:05:00 ET Summary Slowing consumer spending was cited as the primary reason for decelerating GDP growth in Q1, but the most depressing component was that gross private domestic investment fell 12.5%, driven by declines in business equipment and residential housing. Th...
2023-05-02 02:55:00 ET Summary The US money supply data for March 2023, which were published on Tuesday of this week, reveal that the monetary inflation rate has continued its ‘swan dive’. As illustrated below, the year-over-year growth rate of US True Money Supply (...
2023-05-02 02:20:00 ET Summary Better-than-expected results in big tech lifts S&P 500 EPS growth for Q1 2023, now set to come in at -3.7%. Potential earnings surprises this week: Marriott International. Names to watch during the second peak week: AAPL, SBUX, BUD, AMD, UBER...
2023-05-02 02:15:00 ET Summary Stock and bond markets ended the first quarter of 2023 with solid gains despite investor concerns. Gains in the stock and bond markets were primarily driven by a continued decline in interest rates, the rate of inflation, and surprisingly resilient e...
2023-05-02 01:25:00 ET Summary Interest rates continue to drive markets, with central banks walking a fine line between taming inflation and avoiding recession. The Fed isn’t quite finished with the tightening cycle yet, even as the market remains optimistic that rates will...
2023-05-01 21:45:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is up 8.6% so far this year, but 20 predominantly tech stocks comprise better than 90% of the index’s gains this year. If it were not for Friday’s advance, the Russell 2000 would have been down for the year. With ear...
2023-05-01 18:10:00 ET Summary The way higher interest rates impact the U.S. economy has dramatically changed over the last six or seven decades. Higher interest rates squeezed savings and loan institutions to raise mortgage and auto loan rates. Zero rates and easy money empow...