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2023-05-06 00:45:00 ET Summary The April jobs report defied expectations for a slowdown, instead showing a drop in the unemployment rate back to 3.4%. The market may believe that the Fed has delivered its final hike of the current tightening cycle, but the latest labor market data...
2023-05-05 21:30:00 ET Summary Jay Powell couldn’t say outright that the Fed is done with raising rates, but he performed an exceptionally clear pantomime of saying exactly that during the post-FOMC press conference on Wednesday. Powell did sound reasonably upbeat about the...
2023-05-05 16:10:00 ET Summary The total deficit came in at -$64.2B, which is the second-smallest deficit since January 2021. The latest month suggests the trend of a shrinking deficit is not yet over. The Trade Deficit is down from the records set last year, but the US is sti...
2023-05-05 15:27:00 ET Summary Jobs growth beat expectations in April with wages jumping and unemployment hitting new lows. Yet, significant downward historical revisions still point to a softening jobs trend and with lead indicators and tightening lending conditions adding to the...
2023-05-05 15:07:00 ET Summary With inflation still elevated and the labor market still “extraordinarily tight,” Fed chair Jerome Powell has kept the door slightly ajar for another hike. Markets had almost fully priced in a 25 bps rate increase, so the May 3rd decisi...
2023-05-05 11:15:03 ET Summary While the equity bubble created by the Fed's post-Covid easy money policies made an equity market crash likely, the extent and pace of its tightening cycle have increased that risk. Over the past year, the Fed has engaged in its most aggressive tight...
2023-05-05 00:30:00 ET Summary The latest reading on initial jobless claims disappointed coming in at 242K versus expectations of 240K. Before seasonal adjustment, claims came in at 219K. Whereas initial claims were a slight disappointment, continuing claims surprised with an ...
2023-05-04 15:47:00 ET Summary Why U.S. bank earnings suggest a modest recession? Potential impact of regional bank failures on the broader markets. When it comes to market uncertainty, is reality actually better than perception? The latest U.S. earnings seas...
2023-05-04 14:38:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 has firmly turned lower in the past few days and is nearing the lows from last Wednesday. In spite of that turn lower, bullish sentiment was unchanged at 24.1% per the latest AAII sentiment survey. With no change to bullish sentiment,...
2023-05-04 12:00:00 ET Summary What are bond markets telling us about future Fed policy? How does the Fed navigate the numerous crosscurrents in the financial markets and economy? What's the outlook on the US dollar? The U.S. Federal Reserve delivers another ...