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2023-05-09 03:42:23 ET Summary In today's article, I explain why the April CPI report is likely to surprise the market, leading to the repricing of the forwarding funds rates. It may be a game-changer. Strong data from the U.S. economy triggered a market rally rather than "good-ne...
2023-05-09 03:30:00 ET Summary The global equity rally that began last October made further headway in April. Growth stocks were hurt by Q1 earnings disappointments, while financials got a lift from stronger-than-expected quarterly results and waning worries about the global banki...
2023-05-09 03:28:00 ET Summary Overall, due to a lower unemployment rate and rising wages, the payroll report was indicative of a stronger economy. ISM announced on Wednesday that its non-manufacturing (service) sector rose to 51.9 in April, up from 51.2 in March, the fourth strai...
2023-05-09 02:25:00 ET Summary It's true that the Fed is very tight and the yield curve is very inverted - both being classical precursors to recessions in the past. While some observers note with concern the unprecedented decline in the M2 money supply over the past year, I view ...
2023-05-09 02:10:00 ET Summary Central bank hiking cycles in the developed world are slowly but surely coming to an end, raising the question of whether they have pulled off a soft landing. On the face of it, the answer to this question is a resounding no. Interest rates in Europe...
2023-05-09 02:00:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve reports that banks are becoming increasingly restrictive in terms of their lending behaviour. This compounds the recessionary risks coming from rapidly higher borrowing costs. The data suggest a sharp slowdown in lending growt...
2023-05-09 01:45:00 ET Summary The latest rake hike from the Federal Reserve is behind us, and we are left to wonder if Jerome Powell overdid it yet again, this time on the tightening side. Powell’s Federal Reserve overstimulates to the upside and then overtightens to the d...
2023-05-09 01:20:00 ET Summary The stocks were fairly stable on Monday but started to sell off on Tuesday on rumors about the health of other west coast banks. One of the big macro fears coming out of the banking crisis is the effect on commercial real estate. It is hard to sa...
2023-05-09 01:00:00 ET Summary As we exit the peak period of earnings season, we review the S&P 500 2023 Q1 earnings season in more detail, providing both aggregate and company-level insights. As highlighted in our 2023 Q1 Earnings Preview last month, analysts set the bar lowe...
2023-05-09 00:25:00 ET Summary Last week saw the FOMC make one-and-one-half decisions on Wednesday, followed two days later with the release of the most recent jobs data. In commenting on the statement at the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Powell was emphatic that the Com...