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Summary The recent jitters in markets have been due to economic data being too strong. Fixed income markets are likely to settle down when central banks signal that financial conditions are sufficiently tight. The current uncertainty may turn out to be worse than the slowdown ...
Summary What's next for the bond market after Fed Powell's speech? Is the Fed pivot away for higher rates off the table? Outlook on inflation in Canada and the U.S. Stock markets tumbled following Fed Chainman Powell’s hawkish stance on rate rises. Gre...
Summary It is hard to determine sometimes what causes markets to move as they do. Take last Friday’s stock market selloff. The widely cited “reason” for the selloff was Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Of the major ...
Summary The housing market is weird. Sales are slowing, and home builders are calling it a recession. US home prices grew at an unprecedented rate during the pandemic when the Fed's QE program aimed to bring mortgage spreads down. Homeowners are less leveraged than they were g...
A simple linear regression shows that changes in mortgage rates have an inverse relationship with changes in new home sales. The correlation between changes in mortgage rates and new home sales isn't as strong as you might think. There's still quite a lot of noise in the underlyin...
Mortgage balances jumped by 9% in Q2 from a year ago, as prices spiked year over year, while people bought far fewer homes. HELOCs’ decline has ended and balances ticked up in Q2 to $319 billion, from the low in the prior quarter. This has occurred as mortgage rates have spiked...
SPDR Portfolio Mortgage Backed Bond ETF ( SPMB ) - $0.0524 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 2.10% as of Aug. 01. Payable Aug 05; for shareholders of record Aug 02; ex-div Aug 01. For further details see: SPDR Portfolio Mortgage Backed Bond ETF declares monthly distribution ...
The S&P 500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down 11.0%). The Transports advanced 5.8% (down 11.3%). Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $2.442 billion, whi...
Today, the US economy can be characterized by late cycle (perhaps even end cycle) with a stagflationary regime. A stagflationary regime is one where there is high and rising inflation combined with low or negative growth. Investing during this regime can be difficult. Eventually, ...
On Thursday the Fed raised rates by another 75bps and reiterated its commitment to Quantitative Tightening. Over the last two months, the balance sheet has fallen by $25B vs. a target of $95B. The upcoming reductions will be too little too late to have any meaningful impact on red...
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2024-07-14 15:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 05:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-04 22:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...