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2023-04-28 02:00:00 ET Summary The Fed only holds government-backed Agency MBS where the taxpayer carries the credit risk, not the Fed. The FDIC bridge banks have been and still are the largest of the bank liquidity support programs. Treasury notes and bonds roll off the balan...
2023-04-22 11:31:00 ET Summary High-quality, U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities continue to offer favorable yields and have historically outperformed through recessions, a scenario that looks increasingly likely in the fourth quarter of this year. MBS also stands to benefit fr...
2023-04-21 17:34:00 ET Summary What can breakeven inflation rates tell us about oil prices, energy stocks, and market direction? It turns out it’s a lot more than you think. With employment back to pre-pandemic levels, the monetary impulse has reversed, the supply-demand im...
2023-04-20 13:34:00 ET Summary The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. A bond aggregate is about a 5-year instrument in my All Duration model. In today’s environment, the aggregated components of a 60...
2023-04-20 02:54:00 ET Summary Managers have become less bearish on credit spreads with ~40% expecting spreads to be range-bound in the next 12 months. Inflation and the prospect of recession are the major concerns among managers. At the time of the survey close on Feb. 15, pa...
2023-04-17 04:08:00 ET Summary As we head into the second quarter, we believe it’s very likely that economic data will moderate which would be welcome news for the Fed, supportive of their effort to achieve a soft landing and combat inflation. Global fixed income markets ex...
2023-04-15 02:25:00 ET Summary One of the recurring themes I’ve focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we’ve been experiencing since 2021. The commercial real estate market is just one piece of a much larger overa...
2023-04-13 02:25:00 ET Summary Exacerbated by the recent banking crisis, sentiment around commercial real estate (CRE) has turned so weak that these assets are almost perceived to be uninvestible. However, the CRE market has been no stranger to distress since the Global Financial ...
2023-04-12 13:49:00 ET Summary The rising interest rate environment was already weighing on the outlook for construction activity, but the recent stresses in the US and European banking sectors have added to fears that lenders will increasingly step back. The US looks especially v...
2023-04-10 03:30:00 ET Summary The U.S. economy is slowing. A major tightening of real estate lending is now unfolding. The biggest lesson from Kuroda's rein: No individual (or small group) should ever have such absolute power to inflate. April 7 - Bloomberg (Alexa...
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2024-07-14 15:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 05:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-04 22:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...