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2023-07-18 21:43:00 ET Summary The market discount sees a Mexican central bank rate cut from November. We agree, and we in fact can see rates being cut faster than the market discounts thereafter. This can be gleaned from the appreciation in the peso and falls in market rates....
2023-07-18 06:30:00 ET Summary Inflation dominated the headlines and there was widespread consensus among economists that a recession was imminent. The Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate multiple times this year, but those rate increases have clearly done nothing to slow the econom...
2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...
2023-07-14 21:43:00 ET Summary Can bonds provide the returns in the second half that were expected in the first? The case for staying the course for fixed income. Why that fixed income strategy may be facing a timing problem. Originally published on July 6,...
2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...
2023-07-12 03:30:00 ET Summary The high-yield sector offers attractive absolute and relative return prospects due to resilient corporate fundamentals. Consumers and labor market conditions remain on solid footing. Spreads have mostly widened from the end of 2022 through the en...
2023-07-12 01:50:00 ET Summary ETFs remain a fraction of the total global financial market in both equities and fixed income, ranging from 4.2%-12.6% of equities and 0.4%-2.7% of fixed income assets by region. ETFs represent 12.6% of equity assets in the U.S., 8.0% in Europe, and ...
2023-07-10 21:10:00 ET Summary At the beginning of this year, the consensus was that a recession was imminent (within 6 months) so stocks would perform poorly in the first half of the year; bonds were the better choice. The 10-year Treasury yield finally broke above the short-term...
2023-07-04 01:50:00 ET Summary The yield curve, as measured by the 2-year note and 10-year note (Treasury yields) have gotten more inverted of late, registering at -106 basis points (bps) at last count. Even at that, many bond experts are saying that we are still in “lucky&...
2023-07-03 18:39:00 ET Summary Growth stocks were the big winners as the market for most of the first half was trying to price in rate cuts before the end of the year. Lower rates are seen as positive for high-multiple growth stocks and with a dash of artificial intelligence throw...
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2024-06-03 04:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
New ETF Provides Cost-Effective, Broad Treasury Exposure to Customize Bond Portfolios State Street Global Advisors, the asset management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), today announced the launch of the SPDR ® Portfolio Treasury ETF (SPTB) . SPTB further e...
2024-05-14 06:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...