Treasury Bond Yields Don't Lie: But Wars Don't Drive Them

2026-03-16 08:49:00 ET

This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safety, money floods into U.S. government bonds, and yields fall. It’s a clean narrative. Unfortunately, it is wrong more than right, for reasons that have very little to do with the conflict itself, as shown, yields tend to rise about 60% of the time....

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