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2024-04-29 14:51:51 ET Summary Stagflation, a combination of low economic growth and high inflation, is a concern for the US economy. The Federal Reserve is facing a conundrum as it tries to maintain a soft economic landing while reducing inflation. Factors contributing to inf...
2024-04-29 13:51:00 ET Summary The Fed must push back against easing financial conditions to get the disinflation trend back on track. The Fed needs to indicate that the number of rate cuts in 2024 will be less than previously projected. Market expectations show that inflation...
2024-04-29 12:30:00 ET Summary Stocks may benefit whether the economy and/or inflation exceed or underwhelm expectations. Annual deficits will rise but this may not have as big of an impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio as suspected. Geopolitical conflicts have been a poor predicto...
2024-04-29 07:35:00 ET Summary The dollar soared to almost JPY160.20 before falling sharply to JPY154.55 and then rebounding to almost JPY156.00. The euro reached almost $1.0755 before turning lower ahead of the weekend, the highest level in slightly more than two weeks. Emerg...
2024-04-28 16:00:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is recovering in what could be a prolonged and complex corrective phase. 5108 resistance has been tested, but likely breaks for 5168-74 where the next leg down may start. Q2 may be a challenge to trade, but long-term investors may...
2024-04-28 11:44:14 ET Summary Traders betting on a return to low inflation and low interest rates have repeatedly stumbled as inflation continues to be a problem. Despite mixed economic fundamentals, stock market valuations remain euphoric, which is one reason I'd speculate the F...
2024-04-28 11:00:00 ET Barclays has seen an uptick in recession fears, as measured by the performance of various portfolio groups categorized by their traditional performance during different parts of the business cycle. The firm stated that its “early recession” portfolio bas...
2024-04-28 06:15:00 ET Summary Financial conditions are tightening as inflation rises and disinflation stalls. Job data this week will determine if trends of higher yields and a stronger dollar will continue. Technical indicators suggest higher rates and a stronger dollar, lea...
2024-04-28 04:30:00 ET Summary The backing up of US rates did not lift the dollar broadly as it appeared to have done previously. The Bank of Japan had an opportunity to have protested the yen's weakness more adamantly but did not do so. The FOMC meeting concludes a couple of ...
2024-04-27 23:39:00 ET Summary The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 3.9 percent in March. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy p...
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