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2024-05-01 12:30:00 ET Summary The 3% Real rate of return concept roughly matches the Real GDP average over decades. Today, with rates rising and Mtg rates already at 7.5% range (small bracket), it is the institutional buyers of Treasuries who are out of sync with the rest of the ...
2024-05-01 12:30:00 ET Summary Google searches of the term “stagflation” went up dramatically last week, but I don’t believe we’re seeing stagflation in the US. The recovery in eurozone services appears to have legs, in my opinion, as we are finally see...
2024-05-01 12:00:48 ET Summary Kenneth Rogoff warns against "magical debt thinking" and calls for developed countries to rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure debt sustainability. Too much government debt can slow down economic growth and disproportionately harm low- and middle-income...
2024-05-01 12:00:00 ET Summary Stronger-than-anticipated economic data released during the first quarter led to a significant downward shift in market expectations for 2024 rate cuts. While equity markets were mostly unfazed by this change in expectations, fixed income markets exp...
2024-05-01 10:20:00 ET Summary The probability the U.S. economy will see a recession begin sometime in the next twelve months has started to fall again during the past six weeks, after having hit a double-top. The Recession Probability Track indicates the probability a recession w...
2024-05-01 09:07:25 ET More on Markets May Day Fed Day Is It Over, Or Just A Dead Cat Bounce? Stocks Sink In April As Inflation Fears Rise S&P 500 slumps more than 4% in April, snaps five-month win streak on inflation woes Nasdaq slides ~2%, Dow a...
2024-05-01 08:45:00 ET Summary US labour costs accelerated in the first quarter, led by the government sector. Hikes to state minimum wage levels contributed to higher private sector labour costs. This is the Federal Reserve’s favoured measure on labour market inflation...
2024-05-01 06:50:00 ET Summary The BOJ projected yesterday that commercial banks' deposits with it likely dropped by JPY7.56 trillion. The dollar gradually edged higher yesterday, and by the end of the North American session, it had recovered more than half of the intervention-ins...
2024-04-30 16:45:52 ET Summary The S&P 500 fell significantly in April, giving back a chunk of the year's gains. Higher interest rates amid hotter-than-expected inflation and growth data throughout the month weighed on stocks big and small. With a Fed meeting on tap, Apple...
2024-04-30 09:00:00 ET Summary The aim of the devaluation was to escape deflation which had persisted since (at least) the turn of the century. The Yen started to weaken in 2021 as the BOJ ramped up Yen printing again to help the economy recover from the COVID shock. Mortgage ...
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