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2024-07-05 04:05:00 ET Summary US payroll numbers have continuously surprised expectations to the upside, yet soft data keeps pointing at a weakening labour market. A consensus reading or lower would help build a Fed cutting narrative for September, helping both US and euro rates ...
2024-07-05 03:45:00 ET Summary The speed and magnitude of the surge in consumer prices resulted in a sizeable decline in real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth. Inflation cooled quickly following the initial surge and by June 2023 was trending a bit above 3 percent. While real ...
2024-07-04 13:00:00 ET Summary While the US national debt is pushing $35 trillion, it isn't necessarily a problem for investors. The US has more assets than liabilities, and much of its debt is domestically owned. Investors probably won't lose their appetite for US Treasuries,...
2024-07-04 12:30:00 ET Summary The French election: I discuss the investment implications of three possible scenarios: a far-right majority, a far-left majority, and a temporary administrative solution. We received two important data points that could bring us closer to the long-a...
2024-07-04 11:36:24 ET Summary Technology stocks led the market rally, with Nvidia and Broadcom up over 4% after Nancy Pelosi disclosed purchases in both names. Despite weaker economic reports, investors are optimistic about potential rate cuts by the Fed to combat slowing economi...
2024-07-04 10:55:00 ET Summary The global economy moved along as expected, with some slowing but not enough to trigger a recession. We view the slowing as positive, contributing to disinflation and bringing economies back into balance. Rate cuts have begun in key markets, with...
2024-07-04 03:20:00 ET Summary Softer data from the US is paving the path to a September Fed cut, but more is needed to see 10Y UST yields breaking out of the current trading range. Friday’s payroll numbers could confirm a weakening labour market. Except for French bond...
2024-07-04 02:35:00 ET Summary Understanding country, industry and stock concentrations in global equities today is important to monitor risk, interpret what is driving markets and form expectations of market opportunities. US stocks account for over three-quarters of the top 250 ...
2024-07-03 23:15:00 ET Summary The global economic order, once regarded as immutable, is now rapidly changing, affecting every facet of life and spanning the arc of history. The transition from a fundamentally deflationary world to an inflationary one is also disruptive. Today...
2024-07-03 15:20:00 ET Summary Broad-based weakness in the ISM services index coupled with an upward trend in jobless claims suggests that the pieces are falling into place regarding a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The Fed is signalling just one cut this ye...
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