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A softening of sentiment indicators comes as rates already sit close to the bottom of their recent range. Positioning might push them lower still, but EUR rates, in particular, are already consistent with more central bank support next year. The belly of the US curve trades cheap,...
The “new normal,” we believe, can be analyzed into two major categories: monetary and fiscal, on one hand, and technological, social, and political on the other. In both categories, the “new normal” long predates the pandemic, which has served mainly to acc...
Factors driving inflation higher in the last few months eased in July. Orlando: It takes a long time for the supply, demand mismatch to even out. Orlando: Economic recovery the most important factor for overall inflation. For further details see: Has The U.S. Inflation W...
The rapid rise in house prices has stirred up the old debate debate about how the BLS calculates housing’s contribution to the CPI. This is no small debate since the US housing market is essentially the economy, mortgage debt comprises 75% of all household debt AND shelter is 3...
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard admits the Fed is out of position to fight price inflation and may be forced to chase, which would be very disruptive for markets. He says that the Fed would have to stop asset purchases and hike rates to above "whatever the neutral policy rate is...
The latest inflation data and labor reports are more robust than in previous tapering cycles, supporting tapering odds. Tapering of asset purchases has led to tighter financial conditions and a more volatile stock market in previous years. The market may be disappointed come Frida...
The pervasive mistake in most forecasting is that of projecting current trends forward. The best corrective against that is the consistent use of both short and long leading indicators. Although disparaged by pundits (who need to justify their Wall Street pay), the Index of Leadin...
The recent release of the CES employment data for July enables us to dig a bit deeper into exactly what groups have been and continue to be impacted by the pandemic and where we stand relative to the pre-pandemic labor market. Management and professional occupations are down 2.2 milli...
Valuations are a terrible market timing indicator. High valuations historically precede long periods of low to negative returns. Investing is about managing the risks that will substantially reduce your ability to “stay in the game long enough” to “win.”...
The 10-year Treasury yield declined a bit during the Afghanistan crisis, so all eyes are now on the Fed to see how new realities will impact monetary policy. The Fed released its latest FOMC minutes, which revealed a disagreement within the FOMC about when QE tapering will begin. On T...
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Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...