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Summary The risk of recession will weigh on muni credit; however, we continue to be constructive on munis, given improved budgeting practices and accumulated reserves or rainy-day funds. The still-tight labor market should keep unemployment low, and massive amounts of federal fund...
Summary Persistent inflation spurred the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively in the third quarter, with 0.75% hikes in both July and September. Earnings estimates for equities had continued to climb during the early part of the year and only started to moderate...
Summary The additional yield from a municipal bond is a multiple of what it was running prior to the pandemic. When we bring up a recession scenario, it’s important to underscore the role of municipal bonds, and bonds in general, in your asset allocation. Tax-loss harve...
Summary Negative total returns were driven by a sharp move higher in interest rates. Despite manageable issuance, elevated bid-wanted activity weighed on the market. We see several reasons to be more constructive on the asset class into year-end. Municipal market ins...
Summary Despite the recent interest rate volatility, municipals have managed to do better than taxable bonds. Municipals have the same default rate as AAA-rated corporates. Adjusting for duration, municipals’ taxable equivalent yield is still superior. Municipals...
Summary The Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term rates in their battle to slow inflation in the third quarter. The end of the quarter saw Hurricane Ian deal a lethal blow to southwest Florida. The economic impact is severe and portends a big downshift in the economy o...
Summary Historic levels of volatility in the municipal (muni) bond market so far this year has caused investor concerns over market conditions. Technical conditions in the market have improved for tax-exempt investors as the year has progressed, yet outflows of funds from the sect...
Summary Transparency and competition in the municipal market have largely improved with advances in regulation, electronic platforms and algorithms. The surge in trading volume year-to-date, however, also reflects a pronounced rise in swapping activity, which has distorted typical...
Summary Rising interest rates severely pressured fixed income assets in August. Municipals slightly outperformed U.S. Treasuries amid supportive supply-and-demand dynamics. A more defensive stance is warranted as seasonal trends typically turn less favorable in September. ...
Muni debt is mostly owned by tax-paying Americans, and their preferences determine the market prices of the debt. Trillions in derivatives are tied to Treasury debt structures and are part of global transactions that ignore the yield curve outlook and trade against the Treasury yield ...
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2024-07-14 19:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 08:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-14 10:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...