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A few months ago, I wrote part III to this series outlining why interest rates would continue to remain low and most likely continue to fall on the long-end of the curve, confounding consensus opinion as to why interest rates should rise. The consensus opinion on long-term interest rates, ...
In this commentary, Brian Meaney, Vice President, Taxable Fixed Income Strategist, reviews the first quarter of 2019 and examines our outlook and positioning for the months ahead. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
While preparing a chart of upcoming auctions of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities a few weeks ago, I noticed something odd: The Treasury had scheduled a 5-year TIPS reopening in June, in the spot normally reserved for a 30-year TIPS reopening. Was it a typo? Or was the schedule cha...
Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...
We Americans pride ourselves on beating our own records. One of our most recent accomplishments occurred in February of this year when we posted the biggest fiscal deficit in our history as a nation of $234 billion . In one month! If we can sustain that level of spending for the year, we wi...
A lot has changed since December, when I declared that month's five-year TIPS reopening auction " a screaming buy ." That auction generated a real yield of 1.129% , the highest for any auction for this term since April 2009. The screaming is over, folks. In just four months, real yields (me...
To be clear: I think the fixed rate for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds will fall on May 1 from its current level of 0.5%, the highest in more than 10 years. But I don't know it. Why? Because the U.S. Treasury gives no hint about how it determines the fixed rate for I Bonds. It simply announ...
A sign of the times when central banks make decisions based upon what is happening elsewhere in the world. “Fed Worried About Slowing Global Growth in Pausing Rate Increases” read the headlines in the New York Times . Jim Tankersley begins his article by writing “Fede...
One key feature of the last 15 months has been the consistent declines in the global manufacturing PMI. After peaking in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has undergone a major slowdown, and that was a key driver behind the weakness in global markets last year (and a reflection of st...
As I have written many times before, I believe that the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. In fact, you can read my last article on the matter right here, as it explains this perspective using many historical examples. So, in following up on this perspective, let’s see if ...
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2024-07-24 22:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-24 23:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 16:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...