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Bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week’s rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin fell over 53%. Is that the end of the sell-off? Doubts about the post-virus bo...
The near-term outlook for inflation continues to suggest a temporary spike, reflecting an adjustment higher in price levels as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic. In Europe, we expect GDP to normalize to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with inflation remaining l...
When the ECB was founded, it adopted inflation targeting with the implicit assumption that the purpose of the policy was to hold down inflation. In 2020, the Fed adopted an average inflation targeting policy with the implicit assumption that it would be used to push inflation higher w...
CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. Producer prices, or PPI, came up even more over the moon than those for consumers. Transitory inflation is no inflation at all; unusually low nominal and real yields all around. You really have to wo...
Markets are still grappling with the Federal Reserve's new framework, leading to a disconnect between market pricing and the Fed’s projections for rates. U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April. We believe near-term activity data will unlikely affect the Fed’s polic...
Volatility returned to government bond markets in April, amid a flood of central bank decisions and noteworthy economic data. The largest movement came from the Portuguese 10-year government bond, whose mid-yield surged by nearly 27 basis points to close at 0.49%, the highest level si...
Reopening 2 is definitely happening. The bond market surveys the future as only it has been able and contrarily sees less-than-full recovery. While we focus on US payrolls and their wow factor, the rest of the global economy actually doesn't look anything like them. For furt...
While many yields are at, or near, their historic lows, opportunity remains in select segments of emerging-market debt, triple B-rated corporate bonds and certain areas of the mortgage-securities market. A good way to approach value stocks has been to find those that are attractively ...
Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...
We see near-term volatility in inflation as the economic restart progresses, and believe markets underappreciate potential for medium-term price pressures. U.S. stocks hit record highs supported by strong corporate earnings. The Federal Reserve reiterated its intent to "stay behind th...
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2024-07-24 22:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-24 23:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 16:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...