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A lot of the heavy lifting of inflation protection comes more at a corporate level. Yields and treasuries are incredibly low. To participate in a market that should be reasonable as we go forward, but also defend against the risks of inflation that all of us are facing nowadays. ...
The bond market is still in a very confused state as the government and many high-grade companies can borrow at rates that are below the rate of inflation. Furthermore, the financial markets are in so much disorder now that any "tentative" Fed actions to stem inflation will fall far s...
All assets except commodities suffered losses in January 2022. The world is concerned about inflation. It is not transitory. Fighting inflation hurts the stock market. So does not fighting. For further details see: January Investment Losses Are Just The Beginning
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
Popular measures of inflation such as the CPI and the PPI are backward-looking, but the financial markets are always trying to look forward. An implication is that prices in the financial markets are influenced to a far greater degree by changes in the expected future CPI (inflation e...
Per the Fed’s November 2021 estimates for Industrial Production in the United States, American domestic crude and natural gas output continues to be constrained. And not by a little. Compared to the prior peak way back almost two years ago, the amount of overall energy pulled o...
As we look ahead to 2022, our base case is for positive global growth and elevated inflation in the near term. Though we see inflation moderating during the year, there are upside risks to our forecast. We believe growth assets, such as equities and credit, will tend to deliver positi...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...
We stay invested for now as a new virus strain and European COVID surge are hurting risk sentiment. Any delay of the powerful restart now means more later. News of the contagious new strain triggered a sell-off in risk assets. Jerome Powell was nominated to stay on as Fed chair, heral...
The S&P 500 was down 2.2% last week, which, in normal times, would be barely worth a mention. But in today’s speculative market, that qualifies as a correction. The first two quarters of this year were a big rebound, but last quarter was a bummer with the emergence of the D...
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2024-07-24 22:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-24 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 16:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...