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Forecasting macro activity and managing expectations have become substantially more difficult. As the West imposes sanctions on Russia, the potential for a severe supply shock lurks – particularly for oil and natural gas. Macroeconomic risk will rise, perhaps leading to a n...
Russia supplies natural gas to Europe, and in the event of US sanctions, this could impact Europe. But there are so many LNG ships in the Atlantic right now that lease rates have collapsed, so Russian threats to cut off Europe’s gas may not be much of a threat. The other big th...
Investors are on edge, as global stock markets have tumbled - led by the popping of the tech bubble - since the start of the year. With the market continuing to drop, we may ask whether or not it is a good time to buy right now. In widespread market drops, there are investment opp...
ETFs and conventional funds experienced net retractions for the week ending Feb 16, with investors removing a total of $46.4B in funds, according to the latest Refinitiv Lipper weekly fund flow report. Money markets led the outflow charge with $41.9B exiting the door. This marked another...
Money market funds (-$41.9 billion), taxable bond funds (-$8.1 billion), and tax-exempt bond funds (-$1.3 billion) suffered significant outflows. The CPI jumped 0.6% from December and an astounding 7.5% from last January - marking the largest annual spike in 40 years. Conventional...
For the first month in six, mutual fund investors were net redeemers of fund assets, withdrawing $176.3 billion from conventional funds for January. Fixed income funds (-$12.0 billion for January) witnessed net outflows for the second month in a row, while money market funds (-$138.9 ...
With inflation running at multi-decade highs, major central banks get ready to tighten monetary policy. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai argues they are well behind the curve—and why she thinks markets still underestimate the long, volatile a...
With inflation rising, fears that policymakers could tip economies into recession have eroded enthusiasm for stocks after three strong years. In this environment, equity investors must distinguish between businesses that are more likely to do well in an inflationary environment and th...
Investors all talk about risk, but there seems to be little consensus on what it is, how it should be measured, and how it plays out in the short and long term. In this post, I will start with a working definition of risk that we can get some degree of agreement about, and then look a...
The outlook for demand growth remains uncertain. Developed world trends varied somewhat, reflecting the timing of the Omicron wave and differing supply chain trends. Output across both manufacturing and services was often constrained by ongoing supply chain delays. For furth...