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The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...
The war in Ukraine has led to disruptions in gas markets and global supply chains. Some of the services categories that are the most sensitive to wage inflation are also looking pretty hot right now. The Fed’s pivot toward higher interest rates to corral inflation makes for...
Strategies for navigating headwinds facing financial markets. Outlook for equities and fixed income. Why there's a strong case for Canadian equities. For further details see: A Strong Case For Canadian Equities This Year: TD Asset Management CIO
Due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions and embargoes - on top of the already interrupted supply chain, plus a new COVID outbreak in China - global trade is grinding down to a slow-motion “holding” action. As a result of these disruptions, PMIs all over the...
Last year’s headlines (COVID-19 and China) have been replaced with new concerns (Invasions and Inflation). Central bankers are pivoting from stabilizing growth to limiting inflation. Traditional bond and equity markets have come under pressure as they adjust to this new regime....
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has fully miscalculated the West’s response to his invasion of Ukraine. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) looks to have underestimated the underlying price pressures that have accumulated in the US economy. The developing new world order ...
Business costs are now rising at a rate not seen since 2008. Input cost inflation accelerated worldwide in both manufacturing and services. COVID-19 containment measures have been almost completely removed in the UK and US, though many restrictions persist in the eurozone. F...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit business confidence across much of the world, representing a bigger jolt to worldwide business optimism. Falls in confidence were widespread. In fact, while business confidence dropped sharply in March, trends in output were generally more resi...
The Ukraine invasion and resulting sanctions have led to a steep downturn in the Russian economy. Rising backlogs were most commonly reported in the US and across the Eurozone. Growth is proving encouragingly resilient, but the March survey data indicate that risks have tilted to ...
Production and demand growth was subdued by a combination of headwinds, including the Ukraine war and new COVID-19 related disruptions - notably in China. In Europe, the Ukraine war took a toll on production growth, most prominently leading to renewed falls in output in Poland and the...