Why The Iran Situation Is A Valuable Lesson

2025-06-19 13:32:00 ET

By Samuel Rines

Geopolitical risk comes at you fast. But it also tends to fade quickly. Particularly, when those risks are not existential to the current economic environment. The initial reactions tend to be violent in their own right—from equities to commodities to currencies—and they do not tend to have staying power in a meaningful way. There is a difference between short-term shocks and long-tailed risks, and the recent events in the Middle East are an example of the first. The invasion of Ukraine is an example of the second. Most geopolitical events are headline-grabbing, not fundamental movers of the economic outlook. ...

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