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By James T. Tierney, Jr. Transcript One of the most interesting dynamics in the market right now is the fact that inflation is bubbling up. We're seeing it through wage inflation. We're seeing it through transportation costs going up. And we're seeing it through tariffs. Look at t...
By Kevin Flanagan The second half of March was certainly eventful for the U.S. Treasury (UST) market. Coming out of the recent FOMC meeting, the money and bond markets were elated that no more rate hikes appeared to be in the offing for 2019 from the Federal Reserve (Fed), so naturally, th...
By James Cielinski, CFA In the first of a series of videos providing updated views on financial markets, Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, discusses the implications for fixed income investors of a flat U.S. yield curve, dovish central banks and an aging business cycle. Trans...
By Jeremy Schwartz, CFA Last week on the "Behind the Markets" podcast, Professor Jeremy Siegel from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and I had the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, who heads the European Central Bank's (ECB) business analysis div...
The relentless bids in the U.S. Treasury market continue, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing last week at 2.41%. Given the fierce rebound in the high-yield market – with key high yield ETFs trading at fresh 52-week highs – I would have expected “risk free” inve...
As I stated in December 2019, keep your eyes on the bond markets in 2019. And, I believe, watching the bond markets has given us the most interesting insights into the economic situation and the attitude of investors available. The latest bounce in the bond markets came in the last half of M...
Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell sharply. While concerns are reasoned, the alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is an hist...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on March 26, 2019. [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary.] The Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) holds that the change in money Purchasing Power ((PP)) is proportional to the change in the Money Supply ((MS)). It's...
Since the zero lower bound distorts the yield curve at very low rates, an inverted yield curve at low rates is worse than an inverted yield curve at higher rates. This is a reason why the curve didn't invert in the 1950s. The necessary adjustments here could be made either by just looking ...
By Schwab Center for Financial Research A snapshot of yields on a series of bonds. A normal yield curve slopes upward from shorter maturities to longer ones. Investors usually require extra return to tie up their money for longer periods. Changing yield curve. The slope can chang...