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The dollar holds a special place in the world currency market. Following Friday's strong job report, it is surprising we are not hearing anyone talking about raising interest rates or how this may be inflationary. Instead, the focus has been steered in the direction of how we have obtained a "...
By SchiffGold The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting wrapped up Wednesday with Fed policy still in neutral. As expected, the FOMC left interest rates unchanged and seemed to indicate it doesn't plan to do anything at all in the near term. Jerome Powell's comments dampened expe...
Overview: The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's post-Fed rally, and this is giving it a slightly heavier tone today. Equities are mostly lower and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.5% in late morning turnover, which if sustained would be the largest decline in three weeks. The...
They will have to be forced into it. There is no voluntary rate cut and there never has been. This idea, however, is what's being offered today in the wake of another stubborn line in the sand. Central bankers are always, always the last to figure things out. Jay Powell was still talking abo...
As was widely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its target policy rate range steady at this week's meeting. While the Fed did announce a small change to the interest it pays on excess reserves, this was simply fine-tuning the transmission of monetary policy to broader money markets and t...
By Collin Martin When the yield curve is flat, as it has been recently, investors often ask us: Why invest in long-term bonds when one can get similar yields with safer, short-term investments like U.S. Treasury bills or money market funds? It's a logical question - after all, the 10-yea...
By Collin Martin As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - the Federal Reserve's policymaking arm - on Wednesday maintained the 2.25-2.5% target range for the Federal Funds rate. 1 The decision was unanimous. While the main policy rate was left unchanged, the committee lower...
By Nick Maroutsos Nick Maroutsos, Co-Head of Global Bonds, discusses the Federal Reserve's decision Wednesday to keep rates steady and why the central bank's next move could be a rate cut. Wednesday the Federal Reserve (Fed) reiterated its "patient" approach toward monetary policy, ann...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on April 30 by Menzie Chinn here . One argument against the secular stagnation thesis is that the risk-adjusted real rate is not particularly low. I’m dubious. In Figure 1, I depict the real ten-year Treasury yield, adju...
Originally published May 1, 2019 As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the dist...