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Originally published June 14, 2019 My couch, jeans, car, PC, sheets, and phone weigh in on globalization and the internet. Retail sales, not including sales at restaurants and bars, in May rose 3.1% from a year earlier, according to the Commerce Department this morning. That's not ex...
We're Worried Because Any change in interest rates, in either direction, is the major macroeconomic factor we're worried about as investors. It's the great unknown in the current economy, which way are central banks going to jump? As long as we don't see inflation coming then we can assume t...
By Darren Williams As global growth prospects have weakened, the world of central banking has been turned upside-down. But while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already hinted at a change of course, the European Central Bank ((ECB)) is still struggling to adapt to the new reality. It's ...
"The perfect storm" has become a cliché, but the current setup for a 2019 recession just became so text-book perfect in alignment of the three most critical recessionary forces that I have to use it. Let me start by noting that a stock market that rallies because the news is bad - as ha...
If you are a dreamer come in If you are a dreamer a wisher a liar A hoper a pray-er a magic-bean-buyer If you're a pretender com sit by my fire For we have some flax golden tales to spin Come in! Come in! - Shel Silverstein Money created from nothing. The Alchemist's dream....
The bond market is putting a lot of pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to start rate cuts in July and to signal such in the upcoming June 19th FOMC meeting. A meeting date two days prior to traders' often volatile June quadruple witch. To think that positions are not being taken for this "...
By Kathy A Jones Returns for fixed income investors have been very strong year-to-date in 2019. If you were invested, it's likely that you got a positive return. Every fixed income asset class, from the "risk-free" to the riskiest, has posted gains thanks to the steep drop in long-term int...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Markets and pundits were hyperventilating this past week over the prospect that the FOMC might cut the Fed Funds rate at its June or perhaps at its July meeting, driven by concerns that the economy might be slowing, as reflected in the disappointing employment re...
Originally published on June 6, 2019 Dumb and Dumber Esquire Just when you thought media/pundit commentary on the market and the economy couldn't get anymore inane and stupid, they surprise you by plumbing a new depth. This article from CNBC, "These charts show how Fed Chair Jerome...
The Treasury market continues to downgrade US inflation expectations, which suggests that the case is strengthening for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The widely followed spread for nominal and inflation-indexed 5-year Notes fell to 1.53% yesterday (June 12), based on daily data publishe...