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Why Worry About Inflation? The usual end of a boom is when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in order to choke off inflation. We'd thus like to keep an eye upon the Fed raising interest rates, bringing the economic growth to a halt for a while. The obvious reason being that stocks, e...
By Eric Winograd The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble - typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth d...
By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income; Ugo Lancioni, Head of Global Currency Is recent U.S. dollar weakness a resumption of the downtrend that started at the end of 2016? Today's CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from Fixed Income CIO Brad Tank and guest contributor Ug...
For the third time in the last five months, inflation expectations have matched record lows. To hear officials and Economists talk, you'd think they were at or nearing record highs. The unemployment rate, after all, is at a 50-year low point which by mainstream reckoning should mean the cusp o...
It's not so stealthy. This is the transcript from my podcast, THE WOLF STREET REPORT : Let me just throw this out there for us to kick around: The Fed has already accomplished more with its verbiage so far this year than it had in the past when it actually cut rates multiple times, al...
On Wednesday, Goldman slashed their G10 yield forecasts for 2019 and the revisions were pretty dramatic . For instance, the bank now sees 10-year German yields at -0.55% by year-end and 10-year JGB yields at -0.30%. The bank's outlook is well below market forwards. To a certain extent, ...
By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy After a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting like the one last week, it's always prudent to take a step back and let the dust settle, don't you think? Certainly, a great deal of "post-game" analysis has already occurred, and we have even seen eco...
Last week, for the first time since February 2008, the LIBOR curve inverted. The 3-month tenor has been on the move downward for some time. The 1-month rate has been gentler in its slope. Last Thursday, the two finally crossed. As unnatural as inversion in the UST curve or elsewhere, it's an...
By Ryan McMaken Money supply growth inched up in May, rising slightly above March's and April's growth levels. But overall growth levels remain quite low compared to growth rates experienced from 2009 to 2016. March's growth rate, for examples, was at a 12-year (145-month) low. In May,...
Housing Starts Housing starts rose in May to an annual rate of 1.269 million, which was better than expected, with upward revisions to the prior two months that totaled 77,000. The strength is in multi-family units, which were up 13.7% year over year. Single-family home building starts wer...