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By Douglas J. Peebles The first half of 2019 was kind to financial markets. Will the good times keep on rolling? In our view, that will depend on whether loosening monetary policy is still an effective way to boost growth. When the year began, markets were bracing for tighter policy from...
Both food and energy expenditures as a share of total personal consumption are at or near record lows. When combined together, they are at a record low for the first half of 2019. Between a very strong dollar and lack of any major supply disruptions in both food and energy, the skies are qui...
By Pavel Mordasov The US financial markets have recently experienced two milestones as the S&P 500 reached 3,000 on July 10th and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossed 27,000 the next day. The immense rise in the equity market is a remarkable feat from its lows following the ...
It is no secret that the U.S. administration wants a weaker dollar: It would make American exports more competitive and potentially boost growth. But would the U.S. cross into the world of currency intervention to make it happen? President Donald Trump has claimed many times that China has u...
By Frank Shostak On July 11, 2019, before the Senate Banking Committee, the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said that the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the US has vanished. According to Powell , The relationship between the slack in the economy or unem...
Yesterday, I did a post discussing a recent WSJ article on inflation that was partly motivated by research by James Stock and Mark Watson. They found evidence that the recent apparent flattening of the Phillips curve may reflect price stickiness in some important sectors of the economy. ...
The Fed is going to do something on Wednesday. Exactly what is unknown, but it will mark a departure from the former policies of the Fed. They are highly likely to lower America's interest rates, perhaps announce that they will only be buying Treasury securities from now on which, I point out,...
The problem continues to be, I'm sure, one of perception. Economists, politicians, and mostly central bankers have been saying for years that the real economy is the one you see in the unemployment rate. Things are booming. The labor market is awesome, even epically tight. Between last year ...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates today, and the prospect of low and possibly lower inflation in the months ahead is a key factor. The Treasury market's implied inflation forecast is hinting at the possibility that pricing pressure may be set for a new downturn. T...
By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: When central banks intervene, investors may need to rethink accepted risk/reward profiles Back when I was in high school, I worked as a lifeguard. I thought it would be a great job, with an opportunity to...