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By Peter Ireland As expected, the Federal Reserve reversed course last week, lowering interest rates by one-quarter percentage point and thereby undoing the last in a series of nine rate hikes that began in December 2015. My previous essay for E21 described how this policy turnaround can...
My first day on Wall Street. It is breathtaking, just breathtaking. Never before, ever, in the history of the world, going back over 2,000 years, has there ever been negative yielding debt before. For millennia, the debtor paid the lender interest to receive money. "Different this Time," doe...
Originally published August 5, 2019 By Seema Shah, Chief Strategist, Principal Global Investors This morning, investors woke to a significant escalation in the U.S./China trade tensions. Following President Donald Trump's abrupt decision on Thursday to propose 10% tariffs on another $3...
While most of the economics profession seems to assume that a Fed cut in interest rates means money is getting easier, policy has dramatically tightened in recent weeks. Perhaps the most startling data point is the expected level of interest rates in the Fed Funds futures market , which has...
For several months all was working well. Or so it seemed. Slowly ratcheting up trade tariffs on China gave President Trump several talking (and tweeting) points with minimal economic blowback. US growth slowed, but only modestly and in any case it wasn't obvious that the trade war was to blame...
David Beckworth : Our guest today is Evan Koenig. Evan is the senior vice president and principal policy advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where he has been since 1988. Evan joins us today to discuss his time at the Fed and some of his research. Evan, welcome to the show. Evan...
Originally Published August 1, 2019 The initial market reaction to the Fed's decision to cut the Fed Funds target range by 25 basis points is clear: 25 basis points is not enough . We expect more rate cuts soon. Here's why: The FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Powell's opening commen...
By Blu Putnam At a Glance When the Fed indicated it was willing to cut rates this summer, gold rallied to $1,400. Worsening trade tensions could lead to decelerating growth, which is good for gold prices. The price of gold has had a nice run, but it has not been smooth. Having ri...
When systems come to be far from points of equilibrium, they reach bifurcation points, wherein multiple, as opposed to unique, solutions, to instability become possible. - Immanuel Wallerstein Usually, a rate cut should invigorate the markets, increasing risk-taking and bullish sentiment. ...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on August 5, 2019. The euro may well gain in value relative to the US$ over the next 12 months, but three differences between the monetary systems of the US and the eurozone guarantee that the euro will collapse (cease being a useful me...