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The most important forces that now exist are: 1) The End of the Long-Term Debt Cycle (When Central Banks Are No Longer Effective) + 2) The Large Wealth Gap and Political Polarity + 3) A Rising Work Power Challenging an Existing World Power = The Bond Blow-Off, Rising Gold Prices,...
There is a difference between taking profits on a trade/position and a strong expectation that the market/stock will see a change in direction. Until now, all I have done was take profits on my bond positions, and now I am starting to see signs that the market may be topping out. Those that ...
All we keep hearing is that the precipitous decline in our interest rates means a dramatic economic slowdown/recession is on the horizon in the U.S. Nope! Au contraire. Our longer duration rates have declined as foreigners have been buying our debt with both hands as interest rates abroad are ...
This past week, I made a decision about which I feel uncertain. It isn't that I am anxious or afraid about it. Indeed, as I'll show, I came out with surprisingly a substantial gain. Instead, I have the typical unease that comes whenever I sell any security. Did I get too jittery with my gai...
It isn't inflation which is driving gold higher, at least not the current levels of inflation. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation calculation, the PCE Deflator, continues to significantly undershoot. Monetary policy ex...
Actually, negative rates have already reached America's shore, albeit in selected bond markets for specific maturities. Current "real" yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries for the 7- and 10-year maturities have dipped below zero in recent days. It's not the first time that the TIPS market...
I have some seen some commentary about hedging demand and Treasury yields. One typical interpretation is that hedging demand is pushing Treasury yields "too low," and so, the signal from the yield curve is distorted. Furthermore, one could argue that this represents some form of "bond bubble."...
In some parts of the world, bonds are yielding less than zero. Karen explains how that can happen, what it means for your portfolio and moves to consider. Global interest rates have seesawed in 2019. At the start of the year, most investors expected higher interest rates, only to see them ...
"Americans will always do the right thing - after exhausting all the alternatives." Winston Churchill? Abba Eban? An Irishman? Apocryphal? For a history of the quote, see here . When it comes to interest rates, inflation, and financial markets, that hopeful outcome is being sorely tested. W...
Trade battles, algorithms and Modern Portfolio Theory coupled with traders who believe price trends reveal all they need to know makes a confusing investment environment when fundamentals differ widely from current market pessimism. The reliance on trading algorithms has come to dominate short...