Previous 10 | Next 10 |
RECESSION ANGST VS. RECESSION REALITIES Global growth have been at the center of investor worries, but in some geographies, this is currently more a function of anticipation than hard data. Looking into the fourth quarter of 2019, we would break the world into two groups. Europe and some m...
Every time the Fed implements 'quantitative easing,' a.k.a. printing more money, two things go up: taxes and inflation. When taxes and inflation go up, more jobs are lost. - Robert Kiyosaki The economy just went from a graceful swan to a sitting duck in a matter of a few months. In Sep...
How will central banks tackle the next downturn? We believe an unprecedented response is needed when monetary policy is exhausted and fiscal space is limited. That response could involve "going direct" - finding ways to get central bank money directly in the hands of public and private sector ...
By Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA Those of us of a certain age can remember watching Saturday afternoon black and white reruns of Laurel and Hardy films. Invariably, after a series of laughable misunderstandings and comic mistakes Hardy would lament to sidekick Laurel, "Well, here's anoth...
Repogeddon Breitbart and ZeroHedge have been shouting that the financial markets are in chaos, disaster looms, over the spike in repo rates. This isn't actually a serious problem whatever is being said. Sure, there's a reasonable argument that we'd prefer not to have repo rates of 10% ...
This is the fourth in a series of posts regarding the Fed's balance sheet and quantitative easing. Unlike the first three, I'm not going to do the graphs of the composition of the Fed's balance sheet that I did before, because I'm not sure it's relevant to the present argument. I want to quo...
Originally published September 30, 2019 Chinese Renminbi struggles forward in slow micro-steps. If the US dollar loses its hegemony as a global reserve currency, it would be a sea change globally, and specifically for the US economy. Today, we got the next installment in that saga, via...
With China closed for its National Day Golden Week holiday, the stage was set for Japan to steal the market spotlight. If only briefly. The Bank of Japan announced last night that it had had enough of the JGB curve. The 2s10s very nearly inverted last month , and BoJ officials released prelim...
Last December, I made another suggestion to watch bond yields in 2019. I had made a similar suggestion in December 2017, and must admit that the movement in yields in 2018 completely surprised me. Well, here we are, three quarters of the way through 2019 and I feel somewhat the same way as...
By Richard M. Salsman The U.S. Treasury yield curve, depicted by maturities on a horizontal axis and corresponding interest rates (yields) on a vertical axis, is normally upward sloping, with yields on bonds (10-year maturity and beyond) and notes (intermediate term) lying above yields on ...