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If you stand in the middle of the playing field of the Great Game, you will notice the goalposts. At one end of the field is "Fear" and at the other end ¼¼is "Greed." The herd is constantly driven towards one, or the other, as economic and political events are posted on the screens t...
We believe raising portfolio resilience via government bonds is crucial amid elevated macro uncertainty. Scott Thiel explains. Recent weak economic data has raised market concerns that economic gloom might be spreading beyond the manufacturing sector. Worries that the drag on economic acti...
The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term "shadow" really applies in this case. It's not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. ...
Shelter inflation moved up to 3.5% and non-shelter core CPI inflation moved down to 1.5%. Not much to add. I continue to think that the slower the Fed is to lower short-term rates, the lower they will eventually go. I still think the yield curve is effectively inverted, because the zero lower ...
Following a series of repurchase operations that were supposed to be temporary, last week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell apparently felt that the liquidity issue had not yet been solved. As he said , "Indeed, my colleagues and I will soon announce measures to add to the supply of ...
By Kevin Flanagan Reports on inflation have essentially been "stealth-like" and have garnered little to no attention. Arguably, throughout most of 2019, inflation has had no reason to grab the headlines, but let's be thought-provoking for a minute - should investors be concerned about whet...
Measuring The Backup In Interest Rates - Is This 2016? Since early September, after enjoying a historic rally, long-term Treasury rates have become increasingly volatile, rising nearly 30 basis points on the benchmark 30-year yield. Before deconstructing the move higher in Treasury rates,...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on Oct. 15, 2019 We regularly look at what's happening with monetary inflation around the world, but today we'll focus exclusively on the US monetary inflation rate. This is because of the recent evidence that the unusually-lo...
By Pater Tenebrarum True Money Supply Growth Rebounds in September In August 2019, year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well. The main driver of t...
Do you ever have an "aha!" moment when you aren't looking for it? I just did a few days ago. I had been following the repo story and had written about it here on seeking alpha - here and here . But all of a sudden the most obvious thing about it struck me. The Fed is out of its depth becaus...