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Easy Money Becomes Even Easier Last week, the FOMC surprised the markets with a rare inter-meeting rate cut. As the FOMC statement released on the occasion reveals, the decision to cut the Federal Funds rate by a hefty 50 basis points was unanimous. The much-lamented "zero bound" is coming...
Investment thesis: the bond market is still the beneficiary of a huge flight to safety. However, it's possible to argue that the Treasury market charts are starting to go parabolic, which means they may be nearing a top. Other markets are generally in uptrends. The big news this week was th...
Take a good look at March 26's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. March 26's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in t...
By John R. Mousseau, CFA and Tom Patterson The turmoil and volatility in the equity markets is also greatly affecting bond markets, with both taxable and tax-free yields shifting down sharply. You can see the dramatic drop in yields this year, particularly in US Treasury yields, with the...
Negative Interest Rates I have been pondering interest rates a lot recently, in light of where I think the economy is headed as well as current Fed policy. I mean, who hasn’t been thinking about it? The world is totally upside down with interest rates. And let’s not forget ...
The Fed sets the Fed Funds rate to match T-Bill rates with a small premium. The premium has fallen since Paul Volcker who typically set Fed Funds 1% above T-Bill rates. His only preemptive actions were to quash inflation thinking by consumers with 2 sharp rate increases to force US into back-...
By Owain Johnson The U.S. Federal Reserve plans to gradually reduce its “repo operations” over the next few months in response to calmer prevailing market conditions. The cash infusions have been the major supplier of liquidity to the U.S. repo markets. The Fed ann...
By OpenMarkets The Federal Reserve has maintained a 2% inflation target for several years. It is the level that allows the U.S. economy to stay on a healthy economic path, according to the Fed. However, the economy has struggled to meet the target rate in recent years, often se...
By Gregor Spilker At last, gold bugs have something to celebrate. In February, the yellow metal broke through $1,650, a level not seen since 2013, when gold entered a prolonged bear market. What is driving the gold price higher and how may market fundamentals influence its price in t...
Yes, I know that that is CPI inflation, and the PCE inflation rate (1.74%) has undershot the Fed's 2.0% over the past 4 years. That's not my point. Rather, I'd like to revisit some criticism I got in the comment section over the past 4 years, when I began to argue that TIPS spreads seemed sl...