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So much winning! Global equity markets are pushing higher, and many are at all-time highs. Chinese equities and the yuan are perking up. The threat of tariff wars is receding. Industrial commodity prices are turning up. Housing starts in the US are soaring. Consumer confidence is high. Financi...
Having reached their yield low at 1.32% in July 2016, US 10yr bond yields have been locked in just shy of a 2% range for the last two and half years (subsequent high 3.25% and low 1.43%). For yields to fall again, supply must fall, demand rise or central banks recommence their experimental mon...
Interest rates likely headed higher, too. Tuesday was a good day for inflationistas . According to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index ticked up 0.2 percent in December. The more telling stat, however, was the year-over-year inflation rate - 2....
Originally published January 13, 2020 How the problems created by the zero lower bound can be better framed with The Four Equation New Keynesian Model Eric Sims is the chair of the economics department at the University of Notre Dame and is a research associate with the National Burea...
Traders call copper "Dr. Copper" because he has a Ph.D in economics. In fact, most of the time, Dr. Copper forecasts recessions and recoveries, inflation and deflation, far more accurately than his colleagues in the "dismal science," so it pays to pay attention to his macroeconomic messages. ...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist Beginning in 2018, in a long sequence of actions, the US enacted tariffs on goods from a number of countries besides just China. In some cases the affected countries responded with their own retaliatory tariffs on US ...
By Scott DiMaggio, Gershon Distenfeld From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, the major systemic risks in today's investment landscape are impossible to ignore. We expect such risks to contribute to persistently low and negative yields as well as to bouts of volatility ...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on January 13, 2020. [This post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] Over the past four months the Fed has added about $400B to its balance sheet. To put this into perspective, since early September, the Fed has expan...
The most problematic part of the markets at present, in my humble opinion, is the lack of yield. Basically, it just ain't nowhere to be found. We are in a "Borrower's Paradise" and a "Fixed-Income Investor's Hell." The real issue now is "Absolute Yield" and not "Relative Yield." Consider that ...
The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season. Of late, the calendar has not provided much of a clue to the up...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...