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By Frank Shostak According to popular thinking, not every increase in the supply of money will have an effect on the production of goods. For instance, if an increase in the supply is matched by a corresponding increase in the demand for money, then there will be no effect on the economy. ...
The name of the bond market game since COVID-19 hit, if it can be summarized in one sentence, is that "credit spread assets continue to make sense". This graph from PIMCO was in their asset allocation outlook held for retail investors the last few weeks, and I think it did a good job highlig...
You may have noticed in the last several months that the value of the S&P 500 has become really sensitive to things Fed officials say and do. And you wouldn't be wrong. Last week, we noted investors seemed to be pricing in the expectation the Fed would adopt a more expansionary mon...
So far, the current economic situation, together with the response by major governments, compares with the run-in to the depression of the 1930s. Yet to come in the repetitious credit cycle is the collapse in financial asset values and a banking crisis. When the scale of the banking crisis i...
Under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act , Congress appropriated $454 billion to the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund ((ESF)) to backstop emergency lending facilities known as "special purpose vehicles" (SPVs).[1] With the Treasury backstop, the Fed has the p...
Once upon a time the bond market could be counted on for sober analysis and clear thinking in the critical work of providing reliable economic indicators based on the so-called wisdom of the crowd. But those days appear to be long gone, or so one could surmise after reviewing the conflicting s...
By Scott DiMaggio and Gershon Distenfeld Low yields plus rising defaults seemingly leave little ground for bond investors seeking safety or income - or both. But for investors who remain flexible, these objectives aren't as distant as many think. Markets Didn't Stay Down for Long March...
By Robin Marshall, director of fixed income, Global Markets Research Despite a return in risk appetite in the second quarter, long-duration government bonds have remained the top-performing fixed-income asset in 2020. For example, 20-year+ US Treasuries have registered returns of almost 22...
We can observe a history of different monetary regimes that all eventually died, as we discussed in " Where Is the Inflation? " Does that mean this one is coming to an end? While history suggests the current regime could last another decade or more, we do not believe that it will simply die ...
As a response to the COVID-19 shock, we saw that Chinese authorities have not been as aggressive as other major economies such as Italy, Japan or the US. Bank of America recently computed the amount of fiscal and monetary ‘stimulus’ for each economy since the start of the year an...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...