Previous 10 | Next 10 |
Summary Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. Money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. Another indicator of recession appears in the form of the gap between M2 and TMS. When the difference between M2 an...
Summary It’s clear to see that the 30-year yield has decisively broken out of its downtrend channel. The bond vigilantes have finally been woken from their long slumber by rapidly rising inflation. It appears the bond vigilantes may throw a wrench in the Fed’s pl...
Summary After a series of hikes, the Fed’s short-run interest rate target lies between 3.0 and 3.25 percent. The problem with Fed policy isn’t excessive tightness, it’s excessive inscrutability. Don’t expect a smooth ride, let alone a soft landing, ...
Summary While the focus has been on Fed Funds Target range in wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, there is also another component to this query: the Treasury 10-Year yield. The Fed certainly made headlines at the just completed September FOMC meeting with their internal proje...
Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...
Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...
Summary Our US Equity ETF portfolio has a cash or cash equivalents target of 47%. Inflation may be peaking, but it is doing so at a much higher level than the Fed appears willing to accept. We are continuing with our strategically driven large cash reserve. We're eva...
Summary Inflation-adjusted interest rates are rising, rapidly. The lightning surge in real yields has a wide range of implications for macro and markets - a change that is now front and center for monitoring risk factors. As real yields rise further, the allure of locking in h...
Summary Last week, markets finally priced in the fact that inflation is not going away easily or soon. Consumers are feeling inflation, but may also be overly optimistic about the future. The most recent Survey Data from the New York Fed shows consumers' 1-year inflation expectati...
News, Short Squeeze, Breakout and More Instantly...
Direxion Daily 10-Yr Treasury Bull 3x Shrs Company Name:
TYD Stock Symbol:
NYSE Market:
2024-04-25 04:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 06:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-02 16:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...