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There must be a robust economic response to the coronavirus crisis, and that may require immediate coordination between monetary and fiscal policy. Megan Greene is a senior fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School and a senior fellow in international economics at Chatham House. Former...
By Eric Winograd Conventional wisdom says the Fed is pretty much out of tools to support markets and an economy derailed by the coronavirus. But if things don't stabilize soon or if the fiscal response is too slow, we expect the Fed to take on broad fiscal-like authority to funnel liquid...
Investment thesis: The bond market is very unstable right now. Take no new positions. Cash is king during this turmoil. This has been one of the consequential weeks in the bond market in quite some time. Consider the following actions from the Federal Reserve: On Sunday, the Fed cut ra...
There have been recent developments at the Fed. Time Is A Luxury Twelve press releases in five days, and even more announcements than that. It has been an unbelievably busy time for Fed watchers. I hit Publish on the night of Thursday, March 19, and by the time you read this, everythin...
By Robert Hughes Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped sharply for the week ending March 14, rising 70,000 to 281,000, the highest level since September 2017. The four-week average came in at 232,250 versus 215,750 in the prior week (see top chart). According to the Emp...
I have been slammed with emails over the last couple of days asking the following questions: "What just happened to my bonds?" "What happened to my gold position, shouldn't it be going up?" "Why are all my stocks being flushed at the same time?" As noted by Zerohedge: "Stocks...
Michael Darda sent me a scary graph showing 10-year TIPS spreads (white line) and the (real) yield on 10-year TIPS (yellow line): Notice the recent sharp increase in real interest rates in the US. This is exactly what happened in late 2008. Indeed almost everything that's happened recently i...
In March 1968, the US began an experiment in pure growth rate targeting. The value of the dollar was no longer fixed by any "level" type variable. Prior to March 1968, the dollar had been at least loosely linked to gold (at $35/ounce during 1934-68, and $20.67/ounce during 1879-1933.) It's tim...
Part 1 While I'm going to pass along my thoughts to you, I want to emphasize that I wasn't, and still am not, able to anticipate the most important things happening in the markets because of the extremely rare nature of the circumstances. While what I don't know is much greater than what I k...
By Francis A. Scotland Investors are in full panic mode as COVID-19 morphs into an official global pandemic. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average went from a 52-week high to a 52-week low in 10 days, the fastest reversal ever recorded. The scale of volatility registering across markets refle...
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NEW YORK , Sept. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust (the "Board") has decided to liquidate and close the Direxion Daily EURO STOXX 50 Bull 3X Shares (EUXL), Direxion Daily High Yield Bear 2X Shares (HYDD), and Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury ...