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By James L. Caton Fiscal restraint is gone. Supported by central bankers who have developed a set of policy tools whose impact is practically imperceptible, year after year the national debt continues to grow. We no longer live in an era where easy money generates inflation. Such a worl...
Introducing The Term Premium Through the use of economic models, academic research has decomposed the observable long-term bond yields (i.e. US 10Y Treasury bond yield) into the expected path of the real interest rate (r*) and the additional term premium, which is thought as the extra re...
Investment thesis: On the plus side, the Fed's moves to backstop the credit market are starting to work; yields are coming down. However, there is still a lot of fear in the market, as witnessed in the still-strong bid for Treasuries. And the other bond markets are meandering. Right now, cas...
I must first state that the inflation that I am discussing in this article is the price of goods and services, not money inflation or asset price inflation. Mmmm - which to choose! I am sure that you have read very well reasoned articles that suggest that inflation is on the horizon. Here...
I've come up with what might be an unconventional way of forecasting inflation. I begin with the per capita net growth in aggregate debt in the US as my baseline to work with. From there, I use four factors that will prove to be either an inflationary force or a deflationary force. Dependi...
The Federal Reserve has done as it promised and opened the monetary spigots. Since the end of the banking week, February 26, 2020, the Federal Reserve has been buying securities at a regular pace, has opened several different sources of funds for firms that operate in the US money markets, a...
Following the longest expansion on record, the global economy is currently plunging into what could easily become one of the deepest but also shortest recessions in modern times. However, business cycle history offers few clues for what is likely to unfold over our cyclical six- to 12-month ho...
The Fed seems to have managed to halt the massive dollar squeeze and the associated strength in nominal yields and real-interest rate expectations. This has led to a reversal of the rather peculiar gold sell-off that started in early March. We think this short-term win for the Fed to come at t...
Money-market mutual funds (MMMFs) have had a turbulent couple of weeks. On March 18, the Federal Reserve System created a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) to "assist money market funds in meeting demands for redemptions by households and other investors." What's the source ...
The post-virus economy faces possibility of higher inflation, threats to Fed independence, and increased pressure on the European Union. Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research joins Macro Musings to discuss the latest on the economic impact from the coronavirus. David and Jim discuss the details ...
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NEW YORK , Sept. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust (the "Board") has decided to liquidate and close the Direxion Daily EURO STOXX 50 Bull 3X Shares (EUXL), Direxion Daily High Yield Bear 2X Shares (HYDD), and Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury ...