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The growing determination of the European Union countries to move away from dependence on imports of Russian oil and gas provides an opportunity for Middle Eastern producers of hydrocarbons. But taking advantage of this opportunity will be somewhat difficult. In the short run, the Gul...
Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent infla...
We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...
SEC's proposed ESG disclosures will help the marketplace to least differentiate between various players through a wider assessment of carbon footprints and carbon shadows. The US and EU have agreed a deal, where the US will supply at least an additional 15bcm of LNG to the EU in 2022....
The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...
Western economies received a rude awakening to the risks of supply chain disruptions and component dependency/deficiency during the Covid pandemic. Sovereigns, businesses, and households today are all highly leveraged. Inflation is likely to be higher than the Fed’s target ...
A large difference between the pandemic and the war in Ukraine is that supply chains are no longer “only” disrupted but they could be destroyed for good. The European Commission has already announced plans to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. once the required ...
Even before the war began, supply chain frictions had only improved marginally from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, expect even longer-lasting disruptions, a new round of delays, and protracted supply shortages. No economic sector can escape the surge in energy prices. For furth...
Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...
The West is responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by weaning itself off Russian energy. Europe will have an acute need for more fossil fuels from outside Russia to meet its energy demands and achieve its ambitious plans to reduce its reliance on Russia. By spurring the transi...