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Commodity markets remain vulnerable to Russia-Ukraine developments. Tightness in several commodities means that markets are likely to be more sensitive to any supply shocks. Tightness in energy and some agricultural commodities is set to persist for the foreseeable future. Disrupt...
Energy and commodity companies are largely paid in U.S. dollars. Portfolios that focus on inflationary growth sectors are benefiting from high prices for copper, crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer, lithium, and other higher commodity prices. The median new home sales price is now ...
Central banks are facing a growth-inflation trade-off. Hiking interest rates too much risks triggering a recession, while not tightening enough risks causing runaway inflation. The Fed has made it clear it is ready to dampen growth. Implication: We are neutral developed market (DM) equiti...
How similar will the next three or five years look from the years that immediately preceded the pandemic? And what are the implications for us as global equity investors? We don’t expect anything like the hyperinflation and stagflation we experienced in the 1970s; our outlook s...
Plunges in sentiment like we are seeing right now only go this far during a recession. People don’t need the government to tell them we are in a recession to start feeling like we are in a recession. The unprecedented mountain of consumer debt leaves us far less resilient to wi...
The economic news emanating from Britain and the European Union is continuing to come in weak, as many European countries are expected to slip into a recession this year. While inflation may be ebbing in China and the U.S., inflation is still accelerating in Britain and the rest of Eu...
Our rising price problem is, more than anything, a supply problem, and reducing demand is certainly one way to tackle it. But returning to the pre-COVID growth rate doesn’t mean we are headed to recession, that contraction is in our immediate future. US stocks and REITs wer...
Exactly a year ago I shared a chart here that represented “An Epic Set Of Alligator Jaws.” It plotted the weighting of the energy sector within the S&P 500 Index versus the combined weightings of the tech and communications services sectors. The energy sector has ris...
Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Global growth was dragged lower, principally by steep contractions in Russia and mainland China. Barring the initial COVID-19 outbreak, M...
SEA experienced a severe contraction in 2020 because of lockdowns and border closures to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, which halted economic activity and business in the region. Singapore is on track for power demand recovery. The average power demand in Q1-2022 surpass...