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We think the oil/energy price spike from Putin’s war may be plateauing. When oil prices rise, the bonds that are issued by these energy companies get a windfall since their revenue coverage is higher and therefore the coverage of the bonds improves. We are underweight the f...
The energy market is a tug-of-war between fundamentals in the energy industry which is pretty tight. The energy sector has been driving a lot of performance in the S&P/TSX Index since the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. In the short term, I do expect the integrated compan...
Despite the biggest decline ever in the SPR, total US oil inventories (outside of the government’s emergency SPR) have barely budged off their lows. When we look at the 10-year seasonal pattern for total US oil inventories, we are well below the 10-year extreme low and, seasona...
In its most simple terms, inflation is rising prices due to aggregate demand outstripping supply. Despite disagreements on the current causes of inflation, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that their goal is to reduce the demand imbalance through short-end rate hikes and quantita...
Due to Russia-Ukraine war, EU committed to reduce gas imports from Russia by 2/3 within the year, while European Union leaders agreed in principle to block 90% of Russian imports of oil by the end of 2022. As European countries attempt to decouple from Russian energy, alternative ener...
The core rate of U.S. inflation on both the consumer and wholesale level has been steadily declining since March. In light of the Supreme Court’s recent decision to curb the EPA’s power, the SEC’s new climate disclosures are expected to be aggressively challenged ...
When thinking about oil and gas prices, think in terms of time, not just in price. Consensus analysts are probably aiming too low with their long-run oil and gas price forecasts. A look at the drivers of major oil and gas bull markets. There's a ton of focus in financial...
The “forward 4-quarter” estimate for the S&P 500 has slid sequentially for the last two-three weeks falling to $240.83 from $241.70 two weeks ago. The airline stocks, which have never been owned in any size in the last 20 years – with the occasional trade made...
As European spot prices for gas break new records, it is becoming clear that natural gas will be one of the major battlefields of the geoeconomic war between Russia and the West. Despite a popular perception that gas exports are a major source of funding for Putin’s war chest, ...
As many countries look to replace Russian energy, the abundance of resources in the US has taken on new importance – for both the US and its allies. The growth in US energy production over the last 10+ years has facilitated a downward trend in imports and a rise in exports, mak...