Higher OPEC+ Supply And Geopolitics Dominate Oil Market

2025-06-02 11:57:00 ET

Summary

• OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June.
• Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine added further support to the market this morning. Actions that successfully target Russian oil flows will change the outlook for the oil market drastically.
• The latest Baker Hughes data shows that the US oil rig count fell by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive week of declines.
• Trump said he would increase tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50% from 25%, effective June 4.

By Warren Patterson , Ewa Manthey

Energy - OPEC+ supply increase in line with our expectations

OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June. By the end of July, the group will have brought back more than 60% of the 2.2m b/d worth of planned supply increases....

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