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In the first lockdown, surging savings rates across the Western hemisphere were mainly the result of involuntary savings. As a result, the reopening of economies led to an almost full reversal of the excess savings into consumption. In 2021, the rotation from savings into consumpt...
Bund yields decline again, just as the ECB needs to build credibility in its new efforts. But as struggles with the vaccination rollout and high infection rates sour general sentiment in the EU, the part played by ECB buying is hard to untangle. The curve feels supply pressure, bu...
The European Central Bank is reacting to rising interest rates in the world, particularly in the United States, by stepping up to increase security purchases. The eurozone and other countries in the world are out of sync with the United States in terms of achieving economic recovery, ...
The ECB announced a step-up in purchases. But its target remains as fuzzy as before, and higher purchase volumes come with an expiry date. The disagreements within the governing council may raise the bar on future interventions. Near term, yesterday may prove bullish for bonds, bu...
Assessing the German inflation data specifically, we find that mostly the surprise is attributable to one-off factors such as the reversal of the VAT (value-added tax) reduction and changes in weights. We believe fiscal policy will be more important than monetary policy for the euro a...
We have recently broadened our tactical pro-cyclical stance, including an overweight call on UK equities and upgrading European equities to neutral. Nominal yields have risen over the past year - initially driven by higher inflation expectations but more recently by a jump in real yie...
Global manufacturing PMI buoyed by further strong gains in production. Robust growth seen in the US, Eurozone, India and Brazil despite supply chain delays close to record high. Expansion limited by further slowdown in China, in turn linked to shipping and logistics problems. ...
Global economic growth led by the US as PMI rises to highest in six-and-a-half years. COVID-19 restrictions limit service sector growth in Europe and Japan. Solid growth continued to be recorded in Australia and Russia, albeit with rates of expansion capped in particular by weaken...
Flash Eurozone PMI edges up from 47.8 in January to 48.1 in February. Manufacturing expansion gains momentum, helping offset further service sector weakness. Germany outperforms amid factory strength. Prices jump amid supply constraints. For further details see: Euro...
Global recovery optimism, especially in the US, is leading to speculation over when the Fed might take its foot off the accelerator and buy fewer Treasuries and Agencies. Increasingly, parallels are being drawn to similar events in 2013. In this Q&A, we look at when such a sha...
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2024-07-08 07:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-08 07:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-18 00:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...