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As the dust settles, the implications of the ECB and Fed June meetings are subtle. EUR rates should be shielded to an extent from a hawkish Fed, but if the outlook deteriorates, long-end rates will continue falling. This is a bond market that refuses to bow to contemporaneous macr...
Last year's pandemic crisis U-trip took just 128 days - significantly less than the long-term average, despite a once-in-a-generation healthcare crisis. While the recovery speed has varied, the global economy is clearly on the mend. We believe that the next phase of the reopening/...
We had highlighted three risks to our base case, and the Fed managed to deliver on all three. The 5bp hike in the rate on excess reserves (from 10bp to 15bp) is being downplayed by the Fed as being just that - a technical move. The market reaction has been clear, but actually mute...
The US PPI, with updated estimates for May 2021 released by the BLS today, may have already peaked. Europe’s further lackluster HICP for April was confirmed on May 19, representing the most recent top in German bunds. Small wonder bond yields globally have ignored one huge ...
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB has stepped up the pace of its bond buying to around €80 billion per month over the past quarter and said it would continue to buy at an accelerated rate as conditions warrant. Inflation is more of an issue in the United States than in E...
The Fed meeting looms large, and it appears some are taking a step back to reassess the hawkish risks. The belly of the curve offers best carry, but is also more prone to the repricing of Fed hikes. The ECB has already given the green light for carry trades, but has also created b...
Like a lot of parts of the global economy, housing/wood/material each saw a drop in both supply and demand given last year’s recession. Once beyond the commodity-induced price effects, it becomes clear the economy is settling back into the same disinflationary circumstances or ...
Much of last week’s economic focus was on the inflation report. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over year, but that wasn’t unexpected. With CPI printing at 5% year over year, bond yields fell. But these are small moves, and the trend for rates is still up for now. ...
US rates have snapped lower. It had been brewing. Over a half a trillion was returned to the Fed at 0% yesterday, as excess liquidity seeks a home for the night. The bond market sees this as a run on rates, and not a driver of a macro boom. Meanwhile, the ECB has removed a key ris...
We expect that the impact of the U.S. trifecta will continue to wane, supporting a sustained weak dollar regime and opportunities in overseas markets. There’s no doubt that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a strong recovery. As global vaccination efforts continue and eco...
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2024-07-08 07:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-08 07:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-18 00:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...