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Back in August, I made the argument that the EUR/USD currency has hit a “new normal”. By this, I meant that the currency had seen a sustained long-term depreciation against the greenback, and was therefore unlikely to breach the 1.25 level that had been seen before 2015. In t...
Overview Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a ra...
By Chris Turner , Global Head of Strategy and Head of EMEA and LATAM Research Despite some promising news on a ‘phase one’ US-China trade deal, pro-cyclical currencies are struggling to reclaim some of the heavy losses seen since May. We think it is too early to chase re...
By Ed Moya Following a week that was filled with critical updates with the US-China trade war, markets will now focus on the beginning of earnings season, Brexit negotiations, a wrath of Chinese data that will look to see if GDP growth will test below 6% for the first time, and annual meet...
By Chris Turner, Global Head of Strategy and Head of EMEA and LATAM Research Chart 1: EUR/USD is now diverging from the Risk Reversal* Source: Bloomberg. *Risk Reversal = cost of EUR puts relative to equivalent EUR calls Misleading indicator In the FX market, one measure of sen...
Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK towar...
Overview: Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the ot...
Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia-Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea w...
Originally published October 8, 2019 Overview: The re-opening of Chinese markets after a long holiday did not produce the volatility that many expected. Chinese stocks alongside most Asia markets traded higher today, and the yuan advanced. After opening higher and extending its recent ra...
By Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist Risk appetite has been growing on hopes for a US-China trade deal. But the outcome of the talks this week is unpredictable and we think the dollar will continue to appeal as a safe-haven USD: Dollar still the winner As Chinese markets reopened fro...