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Macro News Global: We previously saw that the rise in uncertainty we observed around the world in the past two years has been increasing demand for safe havens such as the US dollar and US Treasury bonds. Figure 1 (left frame) shows that periods of US dollar strength are usually associated...
Overview Efforts by a UK Prime Minister, emboldened by a strong electoral victory, will ensure that trade negotiations with the EU are not extended as the divorce has encouraged further profit-taking on sterling. After testing the $1.35 area on the exit polls last week, sterling had return...
The euro has fallen against the British pound sterling, as predicted. What was not predicted by this author, however, was the quickness with which it has fallen. No short-term upside was found, instead the EUR/GBP pair fell straight to our target of 0.8300. My prior article ( see here ) includ...
Since June 2016, markets across all asset classes had become increasingly concerned about the impact of Brexit. It took decades to create the European Union, but the British only made a half-hearted effort to join its neighbors from the start. More than the English Channel divides the UK fro...
While the election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn't eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy? In the meantime, UK banks and sterling, especially wounded since the 2016 referendum, still offer value, whil...
Last month, I made the argument that the SEK/EUR could end up rising above the 0.095 level by the end of Q1 2020 if current growth trends continue. My primary reason for making this argument was that the Swedish central bank (the Riksbank) had taken a contrarian approach to many other cent...
By Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist and Petr Krpata, Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist EUR: A small step above 1.12 The positive spillover effect of UK election into EUR/USD seems to have worn off. As we head to the Christmas holidays, the week ahead presents a few interesting eve...
Overview: Despite better-than-expected Chinese data, and last week's investor-friendly developments, Asia-Pacific equities were mixed. Australia led the advancing bourses with a 1.6% gain, its largest for the year despite the government revising down growth and wages. China, Taiwan, and Indi...
In early October, I published my analysis here on Seeking Alpha on why the U.S. dollar is likely in a topping process and that my base case was that it would be weaker in 2020 and beyond. You can read that analysis here . The summary is that the dollar has been strong for the past five year...
We expect to see flows back into UK equity and credit now that some of the Brexit uncertainty has been removed. The ruling UK Conservative Party won a large outright majority in Thursday's election, giving Prime Minister Boris Johnson a stable government and mandate to deliver Brexit in Ja...