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The US 10-year yield fell last week to its lowest level in three months, and the weekly decline was one of the largest in the past year. The dollar rose against nearly all the major currencies, helped by a bout of short-covering ahead of the weekend. After falling to sustain the m...
Beijing has taken several initiatives in recent weeks on commodities, the yuan, and crypto. It is stepping up its efforts to rein in commodity prices. The UK reported a surge in April GDP of 2.3% after a 2.1% increase in March. In the month, industrial output and manufacturing fell. ...
With input costs rising sharply, the rise in consumer price inflation has only just begun. As shortages and supply chain disruptions are priced through to consumers, goods inflation is set to trend higher. We still believe the impact will be temporary, but in the US less so than i...
China reported May lending was strong despite the official efforts to curb it. Bank loans edged up to CNY1.5 trillion from CNY1.47 trillion. The EU-UK tensions are rising. The EU is threatening tariffs and quotas as it accuses the UK of backtracking on legally binding commitments and ...
The Canadian dollar has appreciated by almost 3.4% since the Bank of Canada's April meeting. It is the strongest of the major currencies. China reported a smaller than expected rise in last month's consumer prices, but a larger rise in producer prices. Gold is unable to benefit fr...
The US reports the April trade balance and the JOLTS report on job openings. Despite the limited yield support, the dollar is steady to firmer, with sterling, New Zealand dollar, and yen nursing 0.20%-0.35% losses. Gold was sold after pushing above $1900, and July WTI, which teste...
We expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current pace of asset purchases even though the economic restart is gaining momentum. U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth picked up in May. We caution against extrapolating too much from erratic near-term data amid a powerful restart. U...
Most markets in the Asia-Pacific region edged higher. Australia, Taiwan, and Hong Kong were notable exceptions. Germany disappointed with a 0.2% decline in April factory orders. The sting may have been mitigated by the revision to the March series to 3.9% from 3.0%. The Canadian d...
The second consecutive disappointing US jobs report stopped the dollar bounce cold. The question is whether that means that the greenback's downtrend, seen in April and May, will resume. The momentum indicators of the dollar had become stretched. Nevertheless, they seem to favor a con...
Dollar weakness is a topical subject this year, inspiring new forecasts that the currency is in danger of losing its reserve currency status. Recent estimates find that roughly 60% of central bank reserves are held in dollars. The dollar’s status as the premier reserve curr...