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Summary In 2022, historically high inflation led global central banks to make a series of bold tightening moves. In the U.S., it’s our view that inflation may gradually move toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% goal over the year. With a hamstrung Fed, the global outl...
Summary U.S. Agency Mortgages closed out the month on a sour note as earlier tightening was faded into year-end illiquidity. Market selloffs early in the year took OAS levels off their steamy perches and made the sector more attractive,. To say the year was turbulent would be accura...
Summary MBS valuations are attractive both relative to their own post-Global Financial Crisis history and relative to investment grade corporate bonds. The sharp slowdown in housing activities indicates lower organic supply of MBS, slower prepayment speed, and less paying down of the Fe...
Summary Mortgage applications to purchase a home are a forward-looking indicator of where home sales volume will be. Mortgage lenders have spent the last 12 months laying off people and shutting down divisions. Some smaller operations have shut down entirely. What the real estate an...
Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...
Summary Recession foretold in developed markets (DM), a pause in central bank rate hikes and China’s reopening help shape 2023 and reinforce our tactical views. European equities led DM stocks higher. Surprisingly weak U.S. services data spurred bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts...
Summary A historic 2022 taught us to widen the lens of possible scenarios, factor in geopolitical risk and use a new playbook for more frequent portfolio changes. Global stocks ended the year down 18%, while bonds fell 16%. This marked the biggest market storm in decades amid inflation ...
Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...
Summary After adding $1.3 trillion in MBS over the last five years, banks slashed their holdings by roughly $100 billion as of November 2022. Mortgage rates in the United States have soared in 2022, helping to cool housing demand from home buyers. Investors holding MBS pools who may...
Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...
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2024-07-18 07:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-18 05:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-27 10:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...