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Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in May. GMI’s Sharpe ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted return – rose to 0.82 on a trailing 10-year basis through last month. That’s close to a pandemic high, but still...
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The framework for estimating equilibrium returns was initially outlined in a 1974 paper by Professor Bill Sharpe. Keep in mind, too, t...
Foreign and US property shares rallied last week, posting the strongest gains for the major asset classes. US stocks lost ground for a second straight week via Vanguard Total US Stock Market. The weakest one-year performer for the major asset classes: US bonds via BND, which has s...
Technical indicators remain constructive short term. Fundamentals signal that stocks and bonds are likely to disappoint during the next decade. A final rally in equities is most likely before the wheels come off in late summer. For further details see: The Stock Bubble -...
Although some short-term supply bottlenecks and financial speculation might drive commodity prices and inflation expectations further from here, a few big-picture facts are worth noting. The consensus expects consumer spending to keep accelerating because some households have higher s...
The Mother of All Recoveries (MOFAR) is not a U.S. story; it’s a developed-market story. Inflation is not likely to start galloping into the double digits or even high single digits. I expect it to be closer to 3%. If a company can’t grow its earnings in this environ...
The rotation from growth to value is accelerating. The combination of higher inflation, lower US dollar, and higher yields could be lethal for momentum stocks. The Fed is way behind the curve, but we believe that Jay Powell will be forced to acknowledge reality soon. Meanwhile...
Are you familiar with the "Aggression Scale?" Instead of the common classifications, it's measuring sectors based on their volatility, cyclicality, and growth. Three sectors currently are making it to the top of the "Aggression Scale." Technology is only one of those. Can we be ov...
Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...
After a decent start, emerging markets have lagged behind developed markets. Emerging markets don't necessarily correspond to neat value vs. growth or cyclical vs. defensive narratives. The best environment for emerging market economies is one of synchronized global growth. ...
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2024-05-05 03:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-25 09:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-24 08:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...