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Fortunately, the current year has been a bit kinder to prognosticators than the previous one. The bull market that began in 2009 didn’t end when the coronavirus panic pushed the S&P 500 down 34 percent from its previous high. The post-Covid rally, and particularly the fasci...
Some central banks are currently debating whether to tighten monetary policy to fight inflationary pressures, after having eased decisively in response to the COVID-19 shock. New IMF staff research has found ever larger and more powerful companies are making monetary policy a less pot...
Since last November’s vaccine news, financial markets have been "hanging ten" on a swell of cyclical, value and small-cap stocks, and rising Treasury yields. Crosswinds started to grow in the second quarter, however, as economic and inflation data ran hot: rising yields stalled...
Instead of trying to predict where the S&P 500 will be a year from now, we prefer to go through the main asset classes and provide two predictions for each. Stocks: Value will outperform growth, industrials will outperform tech. Bonds: US Treasury 10-Year Yield > 1.67% (up ...
The world economy has performed about as well as could be expected, if one takes as given the pandemic and the inadequate public health response. Global growth in 2020 was negative 3.3 per cent, which is very low historically. But the economic outlook is stronger now than one would ha...
Leading economic indicators remain constructive and a tailwind for stocks short term. Momentum probably carries stocks higher into late Summer despite a likely short-term pullback. Excessive speculation is among the major drivers of the stock rally. The market is probably sett...
Global PMI signalled regional divergence deepening. Delta variant driven divergence aggravates as price pressures ease. Divergence in growth performance carries key risks, including for emerging market assets. For further details see: Delta Variant Spread Poses Key Risks...
Logistical bottlenecks, caused by disruptions to ports, shipping lines and domestic transportation, have lengthened delivery times and further weighed on the supply shortage in some regions. Ports in Europe and the west coast of the U.S. remain congested. Congestion has also incre...
The chief problem facing most of the world's developed economies today is the level of outstanding debt, both private and public. Demographics remain one of the most powerful drivers of long-term economic growth. Sustained inflation requires a permanent increase in demand relative...
Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to push higher in June, based on the annualized Sharpe ratio for a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. GMI’s 10-year SR increased to 0.84, the highest in 18 months. GMI is an unmanaged, market-value...
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2024-05-05 03:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-25 09:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-24 08:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...